If you know anything about me you know I love a good horse race. And with 5 candidates in the Santa Barbara Mayoral race, it is turning into a display equitable to the edginess of the equine racing. So here’s my lay of the odds in the Santa Barbara Mayoral graded Stakes — calling it how I see it.
— Cathy Murillo: 5/1 (Campaign manager/trainer— Mollie Culver)
— Frank Hotchkiss: 3/1 (Campaign manager/trainer— Cory Bantilan)
— Angel Martinez: 7/1 (Campaign manager/trainer— Brian Robinson)
— Hal Conklin: 2/1 (Campaign manager/trainer— Stephanie Langsdorf)
— Bendy White: 12/1 (Campaign manager/trainer— Jeremy Lindaman)
My odds making explained:
The 5/1 odds on Murillo come in light of her dominant presence in certain parts of the city, particularly two of the six districts, the eastside and her home west side, both known for their culturally rich blue collar atmosphere. Couple that with the fact that the trainer/campaign manager, Mollie Culver, is like the local Bob Baffert of political races, being a part of the machine has it’s benefits — access to the machines top engineers and operatives. That could pay huge dividends come race day, especially in this marquee matchup. It’s unclear the impact of what is a clearly contorted attack ad that dropped as a commercial during game 6 of the World Series featuring the local favorite LA Dodgers; but one thing is clear, you don’t spend money on an attack ad like that unless polling indicates the candidate needs to be attacked.
Odds for Hotchkiss lay in at 3/1 because he was the candidate with an early clear path to victory. Lining up on the political spectrum he is clearly the far right outlier, given the cluster of candidates with Democratic ideals in the race, being the outlier could prove numerically beneficial, but that will largely depend on overall turnout. Despite having about the most well connected of a Republican campaign manager locally in Cory Bantilan, without the GOP prop engine mounting an enthusiastic GOTV effort to pull votes from Martinez, I’m not convinced that they have enough numbers locally to pull this one off with so many other candidates on the other side drumming up support.
Martinez, being the lone candidate in this race whose name has been on a local ballot before comes in with 7/1 odds. A moderate longshot (see what I did there), he gets a bit more of an edge than the normal candidate for being the first time on the ballot given the star appeal that comes with being the CEO of a local company that trades on Wall Street. He seems to have invested heavily in gaining name identification among the 20 through 40-something crowds and in the first election post Trump, we can’t be quite as predictive of the actions of the electorate. Couple that with his hispanic surname among misogynistic Latino voters who won’t vote for a woman — Latina or not — and the fact that he is working with veteran trainer/campaign manager Brian Robinson, formerly of Gregg Hart and Measure A victories, Martinez is the scrappy wild card in this race who has eaten into the base of his opponent to the right.
Conklin, being the only candidate that’s been there before gets the 2/1 odds. Although it’s been quite some time and generations of local voters removed, something is to be said for having been to the mountain top and still gathering worthy and relevant endorsements along the way, sans the local party, but let’s be real, he’s way more of a moderate than a Dem anyway. While a Conklin win may seem unlikely to the casual observer given his relatively low campaign profile, he has worked the back room for years and forged relationships that he is surely cashing in on for this run. Working with a stealthy trainer/campaign manager, Stephanie Langsdorf is thus far proving fruitful with an optimally-timed and themed mail piece that arrived in many mailboxes the same time as ballots. Never underestimate the power of subtle campaign suggestions.
Bendy, being the last contestant out of the gate gets the 12/1 longshot odds. He is working with an embattled trainer/campaign manager Jeremy Lindaman, which make his late entry and lackluster campaign presence understandable. While his is clearly the most solid on things of the wonkish policy genre, the role of mayor is less policy wonk and more captain of the cheerleader squad.
All that being said, ultimately I cast my vote a few weeks ago when ballots first came out, so my skin is in the game and the race is on.
If we were at the track I’d wager a $5 Trifecta on Murillo, Hotchkiss, Martinez, box it. $5 on Conklin WPS and $10 on Murillo for the win. But that’s just me, maybe it’s just my annual 6-month withdraws from the Kentucky Derby.
— James Joyce III is a recovering journalist living in Santa Barbara, CA.
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